In June 2008, amid the global financial crisis, General Motors announced plans to cut back on SUV production. Chairman Rick Wagoner even hinted at selling the Hummer brand, once a pillar of GM’s growth strategy. John Casesa, managing partner of the respected New York auto-consulting firm Casesa Shapiro Group, had this to say about GM’s bold new direction: “I think GM is basically declaring the SUV dead. The trend away from these vehicles is irreversible”.

Meanwhile, writing in the New York Times around the same time, Kurt Andersen humorously prescribed a 3-step program for the future of the American economy which he dubbed “Bubbleholics Anonymous”. Andersen, an award-winning journalist, predicted the death of the consumer economy and compared the pain of the financial collapse to the withdrawal symptoms of an addict in recovery.

A mere decade later SUVs accounted for roughly half of all auto sales in America and consumer spending was 30% higher than before the 2008 crisis. Current rumours even suggest GM plans to revive the Hummer.

In the grip of a global pandemic unprecedented in modern times, similar predictions of a “new normal” abound. Like 2008, there’s a pervasive sense of the end of an era and an ominous feeling that the good times are over. The phrase “new normal” suggests a not-so- bright future, where nothing will be the same and everything will be worse in some way.

In the spirit of trying to bring these ideas into perspective, I offer a selection of my own, less gloomy, hospitality-focused counter predictions here.

Contactless hospitality is not the future. Contactless check-in, robot waiters and every imaginable idea in between. It appears many expect technology to replace the need for human interaction in hotels.

None of this is really anything new. For at least a decade now most hotel groups have introduced apps, electronic room keys and other tech solutions. Some have taken off, others have been less popular. While there are undeniable benefits to technology - who doesn’t like remotely opening curtains from the comfort of a bed? - there is still a very strong case to be made for personalized service.

Call me old fashioned, but I don’t see Siri’s infinite Google-enabled wisdom as a substitute for a genuinely friendly smile. AI might track your preferences far more methodically than any human ever could, but a fresh orange juice at breakfast simply doesn’t taste as sweet without the warm welcome of the hostess.

For all the wonders of technology, it is human interaction that breathes life into hospitality.

“Lavish buffet” ads will continue to grace your spam folder. Perhaps nowhere have the predictions of doom been more pointed than in the realm of the beloved buffet. From Shakespearian odes to the love of all-you-can-eat breakfast pancakes, to self-righteous rants from angry patrons who blame the buffet for all that’s wrong in their lives. The humble buffet’s time is deemed to have run out.

Unsurprisingly, critics point to obvious hygiene concerns as the reason why the buffet cannot survive. Suggested alternatives include pre-packaged meals, self-service grab & go kiosks, contactless pre-ordered room service, third party food delivery and even (gasp) a la carte only restaurants.

Buffets exist because they’re enormously popular and, if well managed, financially lucrative. The hygiene concerns are valid, in fact, it’s surprising it’s taken a worldwide pandemic to bring these concerns to the mainstream. However, there are ways to mitigate and even eliminate most of the risk. The buffet may evolve, but it will continue to thrive.

The privilege of overpaying for a soft drink, aka “the minibar” will remain. Perhaps one of the few areas hoteliers are mildly excited to usher in the “new normal” is the prediction of death for the minibar. The enigmatic little fridge filled with tiny wine and $7 peanuts is an enigma of love and loathing on both sides of the check-in desk.

Guests indulge in the late evening, only to berate themselves when they get the bill, while F&B managers cite inevitable inventory loss to justify unheard-of sale prices. Here, however, the hygiene concerns simply don’t stack up. It seems self-evident maintaining a clean, sanitized mini-bar is not a valid concern.

A more pertinent question is how to evolve the minibar into a more personalized (and profitable) service. A little innovation can turn the stereotypical minibar into a truly valuable amenity.

The Michelin home delivery guide is a publicity stunt. Kudos to Michelin for a wonderful piece of public relations. As savvy as the move was however, it remains only PR.

While many famous chefs have declared their intention to keep their “at home” menus going even after the pandemic ends, the economic reality of average checks will quickly bring an end to those egalitarian ambitions.

Even the best ingredients are quickly reduced to being simply food when packaged for home delivery, no matter how creative the packaging and high-minded the reheating instructions. Home delivery service is best left for operators who specialize in, well, home delivery service.

Workcations will become a buzzword. Zoom and Microsoft Teams have quickly become the new boardrooms and we’re awash with work-from-home predictions for the future.

Clearly, many people can effectively work from anywhere in the digital age. Hence, the argument goes, it’s equally clear that business travel is a luxury that will fade to a distant memory. The freedom to work from home will inevitably lead to the desire to work from somewhere more stimulating. Not to mention the obvious value of networking at conferences, totally lost in the digital boardroom.

Workcations will become the new staycations and hotels are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this new sector. None of this is meant as a criticism of predictions, or those who make predictions, of post- pandemic life. Indeed, these speculations bring into focus some of the core challenges that lie ahead. Imagining post-pandemic life is a great way to consider the necessary changes to improve the industry.

For change to be meaningful and valuable, however, we need to ask questions. Sweeping claims of “a new normal” where hospitality will be unrecognizable probably contain some general truths. But accepting at face value that proven concepts are doomed discounts the tremendous innovation and creativity that made hospitality a giant of the world economy.

History proves hospitality, travel and tourism can survive major setbacks and grow stronger. It may not look exactly as before, but the biggest change in the new normal will be that the industry becomes even better.