5 Insights Into the Changing Landscapes of Hospitality and Higher Education

Key Take Away

Successful hospitality professionals know that multiple institutions have shifted their educational offer from the physical space into a distance-learning format in record time - proof of how the educational system can evolve.

With Covid-19 acting as a trigger for change in our educational model for more individualization, flexibility and global reach, we can now return to the original meaning of "crisis" as a turning point for better hospitality educational models in the future. The difference between success and failure often depends on how we deal with challenges and difficulties.

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Hotel Industry 2020 – The New Normal

 The "light and warmth of hospitality," coined by Conrad Hilton, will not be apparent upon entrance to a hotel post COVID-19. Expect acrylic covered front desks, masks and gloves, signage advising guests to use caution, frequent disinfecting of public spaces, wide open lobbies with limited seating and restaurants and bars that have six feet of separation in every direction. The good news is that we are approaching the re-opening of the economy!

According to the top prognosticators in the hotel industry, here is what we are looking at from an occupancy, average rate (ADR), RevPAR perspective:

The best case seems to point to a drop in occupancy from 66% in 2019 to 50% in 2020 and a drop in ADR from $133 to $107 resulting in a RevPAR drop of over 30% from $88 to $55. Worst case scenarios have us dropping well below 50% in RevPAR, close to Armageddon. Once STR releases an April forecast, the overall average should increase. These firms have done a tremendous job of analysis given the completely different demand generators—the bad news here is that even in the best scenarios, there are no net profits forecast for 2020.

Operations

Profits will be gone in 2020 with hopes of a return to closer to normal revenues and profits in 2021 or 2022. The implementation of completely new protocols including hospital grade sanitization, masks and thermometers will be fairly expensive relative to supply costs.

Valuation

We can expect values to decline in line with net income, but with less deals done. The real question will be when will values come back to 2019 levels and will it be a buyer's or seller's market. The latter depends on how long it will take for this destabilized market to bounce back. Over-leveraged sellers will be at risk as short-term values will take a precipitous drop. However, lenders will only foreclose on operators who do not engage in a sincere way. They do not want to own hotels. Transaction volumes will be down according to an April, 2020 Lodging Industry Investment Council survey.

Supply

Airbnb and short-term rentals will continue to impact hotels. With unemployment numbers at new highs, millions of Americans will need to find a way to supplement their income and home sharing may be people's means to do so. New supply for those accommodations could surge and have a negative impact on hotel room rates in general. But many cities have sued Airbnb and our original prediction was that they would become an online travel agency (OTA) by 2020. Well, only time will tell, but they have postponed their 2020 IPO.

Demand

We will start to see two separate groups emerge - those who feel they can travel freely, and those who are still susceptible to the virus. The first group is made up of individuals who have tested positive for the virus anti-bodies - meaning they had the virus and lived and those who believe they are not at significant risk. This group will be our primary source of demand, while others may continue to quarantine and limit travel. This summer, we can expect to see "pent up" demand. After being stuck at home for eight or more weeks, consumers will be itching to travel.

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Hospitality Industry Top Winners and Losers in the Post-Crisis Era

Here are the big winners as a result of the current coronavirus crisis:

1. Major Hotel Chains:  Currently 8 global hotel brands dominate many major markets: already 70% of hotel rooms in the U.S. and 50% in the U.K. belong to branded properties. 58.3% of roomnights, dominance in the corporate travel and group markets, comprehensive technology stack, expertise in maintaining and increasing occupancy and RevPARs in post-crisis, unparalleled direct channel distribution, 2x lower OTA commissions and 3x-4x lower dependency on the OTAs.

2. OTAs: The OTAs have emerged stronger after all of the previous crisis and calamities: 9/11, SARS, MERS, the recession, ZIKA, H1N1.. This "online planning and purchasing education" has created millions of converts and believers in online travel planning and booking, which will benefit the OTAs immensely.

3. Automation and Robotization of the Hospitality Industry:With labor costs constituting 33%-38% of overall operational cost and top line revenues plummeting, owners and managers will be looking to curtail costs and boost efficiencies. Next gen technology applications, automation, robots and devices will be replacing or augmenting back office operations, housekeepers, porters, reservation staff, front desk clerks, concierges, porters, line cooks, wait staff, etc. with robots, automation, AI-powered mobile check-ins and self-check-in and self-ordering kiosks etc.

Here are the biggest losers as a result of the coronavirus crisis:

1. Traditional and brick-and-mortar travel intermediaries: Even before the crisis the traditional intermediaries have been steadily losing market share. In the U.S. from more than 30,000 travel agencies 20 years ago, there were less than 9,000 left before the crisis. In the UK from nearly 9,000 travel agencies back in 2000, today there are less than 4,300 left

2. Destinations relying on long-haul or foreign feeder markets:

Drive-in and short-haul feeder markets will be the first to "wake up" in the immediate post-crisis period.Destinations relying on long-haul, fly-in or foreign feeder markets will experience very slow and painful recovery, which will extend well into 2021.

3. Independent Hotels:

The number of independent hotels has been shrinking for over 15 years. By adopting an asset-light business model and introducing soft brands, the major hotel chains have been aggressively expanding their global networks. In the post-crisis environment independent hotels will not be able to compete with the major brands for the fledgling travel demand and will further rely on the OTAs for their distribution.

 

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Three Cases When Hotel Marketers Might Want To Consider OTAs

Years into an ongoing tug-of-war over direct bookings, it’s fair to say that Online Travel Agencies (OTAs), like Priceline, Expedia and Hotels.com, still stir up a lot of angst within the hotel marketing community. OTAs, after all, charge a substantial commission on each booking — generally in the 20% range — which eats into a hotel’s profit margin.

The price of winning a direct booking is considerably less than an OTA, especially when cultivated through earned acquisition channels like SEO, content marketing or email. But in some cases, depending on your market, audience and hotel type, the difference is not quite as black and white.

Here are three cases when biting the OTA bullet might be worth your consideration:

Metasearch In A Competitive Urban Market

If your hotel is competing in a highly saturated hotel market where consumers tend to shop for the best price — let’s say New York — the costs of running a metasearch campaign can quickly get out of hand. Google can charge you up to 6% of your nightly rate simply for a click to your website, and that’s before even converting the booking. Over the course of a month — including successful clicks that do lead to bookings — it’s certainly not out of the question to pay a cost of sale somewhere in the 50%-60% range.

Hotels In A Low-Traffic Market

For all the criticism they face, OTAs do a great job of distributing your hotel to consumers who previously were unaware of your brand. This is especially important for hotels in less high-profile destinations, where most of the marketing battle involves distribution and visibility. Some forms of advertising can still be very effective for these types of hotels, especially retargeting (when the guest is already familiar with you), but the volume simply isn’t there to warrant heavy investment in pay-per-click. You might not pay much for the ad placements themselves, but given the lack of search traffic for those keywords, chances are you wouldn’t see much return on the money you spent anyway

Overpriced Display Ads

For hotels with deep enough pockets to compete for high-traffic placements, display ads can be worthwhile as an acquisition channel that generates direct bookings For smaller hotels, however, the cost of sale can be hard to swallow: Not only are you competing for prime advertising space with higher-converting retargeting ads (which results in low ROI), but the price can easily top the 20% collected by OTAs.

Take a small boutique hotel in West Hollywood, for instance. You’re in a supremely competitive hotel market where your competitors have vastly higher advertising budgets, and your average daily rate (ADR) is on par with average urban lifestyle hotels (i.e., somewhere in the $200-$300 per night range). Even with the limitations of OTAs, the need to fill rooms means you wouldn’t be crazy to supplement your display ad budget with equal or higher investment in OTAs.

OTA bookings are inefficient for many hotels, and my recommendation here is certainly not to consider them as your go-to marketing channel. Rather, it’s to consider them as a sensible alternative to other high-cost digital channels. Is the 20% commission ideal? Far from it, but it all comes down to cost of sale and how you can most efficiently fill rooms at your hotel. Even with a high ROI, some acquisition channels can have a higher cost of sale than an OTA. At that point, you have to make your decisions based on what’s most important for your brand.

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