International Tourist Numbers Could Fall 60-80% in 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22% fall in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020, the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows. According to the United Nations specialized agency, the crisis could lead to an annual decline of between 60% and 80% when compared with 2019 figures. This places millions of livelihoods at risk and threatens to roll back progress made in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy

Available data reported by destinations point to a 22% decline in arrivals in the first three months of the year, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Arrivals in March dropped sharply by 57% following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and the closure of airports and national borders. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about US$80 billion in receipts (exports from tourism).

Although Asia and the Pacific shows the highest impact in relative and absolute terms (-33 million arrivals), the impact in Europe, though lower in percentage, is quite high in volume (-22 million).

Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate. Current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year. These depend on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders. The following scenarios for 2020 are based on three possible dates for the gradual opening up of international borders.

• Scenario 1 (-58%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July

• Scenario 2 (-70%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early September

• Scenario 3 (-78%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions only in early December.

  Under these scenarios, the impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into:

• Loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists

• Loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism

• 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk

  This is by far the worst crisis that international tourism has faced since records began (1950). The impact will be felt to varying degrees in the different global regions and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to rebound first.

  Experts see recovery in 2021

  Domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand according to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey. The majority expects to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, than business travel.

International tourist arrivals, 2019 and Q1 2020 (% change)

International Tourism 2020 Scenarios

International tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)

When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover?

World Tourism Organization Underscores Tourism’s Importance for COVID-19 Recovery in Audience with the King of Spain

The Spanish Head of State was briefed on the global response being led by the UNWTO at the audience, which acknowledged the importance of the tourism sector for economic and social recovery in the face of the pandemic.

During the audience, UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili stressed the urgency of mustering a coordinated political response at the international level, as well as a real commitment to support tourism, a sector that accounts for 10% of jobs worldwide.

The COVID-19 crisis has coincided with the beginning of the Decade of Action, the countdown to the achievement of the 17 Goals deriving from the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

According to the UNWTO’s figures, tourism accounts for 12% of the GDP of Spain, which in 2019 received nearly 84 million international tourists, whose expenditure amounted to 80 billion US dollars. In 2018, the country was the world’s number two destination in terms of both tourism arrivals and receipts. 

Today, tourism is among the hardest hit sectors due to COVID-19 and its consequences. The UNWTO estimates that international tourist arrivals worldwide this year could fall by as much as 30%, with a corresponding loss of international tourism receipts of up to 450 billion US dollars.

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